A dynamic split-image design: On the left, a Washington Commanders player in a bold red and gold uniform leaps for a pass against a blurred background of the Madrid skyline with the Santiago Bernabéu stadium. On the right, a Miami Dolphins player in aqua and orange makes a sharp cut on the field, with a stylized Spanish flag pattern subtly integrated. The overall mood is energetic and competitive, capturing a premier NFL showdown on an international stage.
Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction: 2025 NFL Madrid Game Preview
Game Overview
The Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins are set to face off on November 16, 2025, at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, Spain. Both teams enter this international matchup with identical 3-7 records, but their recent form tells different stories. The Commanders are currently on a five-game losing streak, while the Dolphins recently snapped a seven-game skid with an impressive 30-13 victory over the Buffalo Bills.
Injury Report
Washington Commanders
- Jayden Daniels (QB): Out with elbow injury
- Terry McLaurin (WR): Out with quad injury
- Trey Amos (CB): Placed on injured reserve with fractured fibula
- Tyreek Hill (WR): Unavailable due to knee injury
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5
- Over/Under: 47.5 points
- Multiple key offensive players sidelined
- Defensive struggles prompting coaching changes
- Five-game losing streak creating confidence issues
- Poor record against the spread (3-7)
- Coming off a confidence-building win
- Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa showing recent form
- Slight momentum shift after breaking losing streak
- Favorable weather conditions in Madrid
Miami Dolphins
Betting Lines
Team Analysis
Washington Commanders
The Commanders are facing significant challenges heading into this matchup. The loss of starting quarterback Jayden Daniels and top receiver Terry McLaurin severely hampers their offensive capabilities. Defensively, the team has struggled mightily, prompting head coach Dan Quinn to take over defensive coordinator duties following a series of poor performances, including allowing 44 points in a recent loss to the Detroit Lions.
The Commanders have lost seven of their last nine games and hold a 3-7 record against the spread this season, indicating consistent underperformance relative to expectations.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins enter this game with renewed confidence after their decisive victory over Buffalo. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leads an offense that demonstrated explosive potential in their last outing. While the absence of Tyreek Hill is significant, the team showed they can still produce offensively without their star receiver.
Miami's recent performance suggests they may have turned a corner after their seven-game losing streak, giving them momentum heading into this international contest.
Expert Predictions
CBS Sports
The SportsLine Projection Model predicts a close game with the Dolphins holding a slight edge. The model takes into account both teams' recent performances and injury situations.
Dimers.com
Their updated simulations give the Dolphins a 58% chance of winning, projecting a final score of 24-22 in favor of Miami. This suggests a tightly contested game that could come down to the final possession.
NBC Sports
Analysts highlight the Commanders' ongoing struggles, particularly noting their defensive issues and inability to cover spreads consistently this season.
Key Factors
Commanders' Concerns:
Dolphins' Advantages:
Game Environment
The matchup takes place in Madrid, Spain, where clear and mild weather conditions are expected. The international setting adds an additional variable, though both teams should adapt well to the favorable playing conditions.
Final Prediction
Given the Commanders' injury challenges, defensive struggles, and recent losing streak, combined with the Dolphins' momentum from their Buffalo victory, Miami appears positioned to secure a narrow victory. The projected score of 24-22 in favor of the Dolphins reflects the expectation of a competitive game where Miami's slightly healthier roster and recent positive performance give them the edge needed to cover the 2.5-point spread.
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